Liam Horan
November 17, 2021
The Indo-Pacific is a region of growing strategic importance for the United States. First recognized by President Obama in 2011 in the Australian House of Representatives, he remarked that “after a decade in which we fought two wars that cost us dearly, in blood and treasure, the United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region.”[1] Exactly 10 years later, the United States is once again emphasizing the immense importance of the Indo-Pacific by announcing a landmark defense pact known as AUKUS alongside Australia and the United Kingdom. This pact, which provides Australia with a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, is a representation of the complex and evolving military, economic, and strategic threat that China continues to pose towards Indo-Pacific nations. After years of China’s relentless wolf warrior diplomacy, intimidation tactics, economic threats, and inflammatory rhetoric, it seems that Australia and the United States are finally beginning to stand up for themselves.
Australia itself is trapped between two of the most powerful countries on Earth. With China as its largest trading partner and the United States as its closest ally, Australia has been unable to effectively choose a side in any international political issue. However, China has been determined to gain influence over Australia through any means possible. In 2017, it was reported that over 80% of foreign political donations to Australian politicians came from China.[2] These reports worried then Prime Minister Turnbull, who led the charge to pass legislation banning foreign political donations in Australian politics, deeply angering Beijing.
However, Australia’s relationship with China truly began to sour following an announcement by Prime Minister Scott Morrison in 2020, which called for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19. Beijing subsequently retaliated by suspending large quantities of beef imports, steeply raising import tariffs, and threatening that the Australian-Chinese relationship could be damaged “beyond repair”.[3]
Australia’s relationship with China continued to decline after the Australian Government announced that it would be conducting a war crimes probe into the Australian Special Forces for their alleged human rights abuses in Afghanistan. Immediately following this announcement, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted a provocative image on Twitter depicting an Australian soldier holding a bloody knife to the neck of an Afghani child, which prompted widespread public outrage and diplomatic fury from the Australian Government.
This incendiary post combined with the duress caused by exorbitant import tariffs on major Australian industries, as well as the Chinese militarization of the South China Sea, pushed Australia and its policymakers to a tipping point. As summarized by Australian Defense Minister Dutton, “the situation in the Indo-Pacific is deteriorating, and the only way to defend the international rules-based order that has served [Australia] so well is through alliances.”[4]
Australia stands to gain much more from AUKUS than just the strengthening of its alliances with the United States and the United Kingdom. This deal will provide increased military cooperation across all domains of warfare, ranging from increasing rotational U.S. Marine deployments in the country to the coordinated development of ballistic missile capabilities. Aside from provision of nuclear submarines to bolster Australia’s naval capabilities, the United States has also expressed a willingness to deploy “all available U.S. aircraft in the region, including fifth generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, to Australia”[5]. Ultimately, AUKUS is about more than just submarines. It is about the guaranteed security and prosperity of Australia and Australian interests for decades to come.
AUKUS is not only necessary and needed for the security and prosperity of Australia, but it is also of vital strategic importance to the United States, which has been desperately searching for ways to stand up to Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. This aggression, which includes the militarization of the South China Sea, hostile and threatening actions towards Taiwan, and a continued pursuance of “overseas military installations and access agreements to enhance [their] ability to project power and protect Chinese interests abroad”[6], is a direct and increasing threat to American prosperity in the region, which the United States must counter. AUKUS recognizes and combats this threat effectively by not only providing Australia with high-tech nuclear submarines that could challenge any Chinese vessel, but also by neutralizing a significant portion of China’s naval power due its weak anti-submarine capabilities.[7]
However, it is important to note what this deal has cost the United States and Australia: good standing with the French. In a move that seemed to catch American and Australian officials off guard, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian slammed the agreement as “a knife in the back,”[8] and even went so far as to recall both French ambassadors to the United States and Australia. French outrage on this matter is quite understandable, as the previous submarine contract between France and Australia totaled around $66 billion dollars[9], and was even hailed by the French as the “Deal of the Decade.”[10] In addition to the French opposition of AUKUS, critics, namely China, argue that AUKUS accomplishes nothing except to “severely damage regional peace… and intensify the [global] arms race.”[11]
While AUKUS may increase tensions in the region, it is important to remember why AUKUS is needed in the first place. China’s militaristic and provocative actions in the Indo-Pacific forced Australia to develop the means to defend itself; if there is any blame to be cast for this increase in tensions, it is solely to be laid at China’s feet. In regard to those who may oppose this deal because of its diplomatic and political ramifications with the French, it is important to note that the American and French relationship has been strained before. Namely, when France voted against the United States’ UN resolution that would have authorized an American invasion into Iraq. France’s opposition to this resolution prompted enough outrage from the American public to cause a boycott of French goods and even a short-lived name change of French fries to freedom fries. Yet despite this anger, the French and American governments moved past this incident and continued to cooperate on pressing global issues, such as on the development of counterterrorism strategies. If our governments have worked through our diplomatic differences in the past, they most certainly can move forward in the present and in the future. It is also important to hypothesize why the French may have reacted so strongly to this deal. One may argue that it is a result of the domestic political ramifications for French President Emmanuel Macron. With the French Presidential Election rapidly approaching in April 2022, the scuttling of this submarine deal will certainly harm Macron’s re-election bid, which is why the over-dramatic reaction of the French is more likely to save face rather than a meaningful downturn in relations.
While AUKUS may harm the diplomatic relationship between the United States and France in the short term, this strategic deal with Australia and the United Kingdom is worth it, as it guarantees the defense of Australia from Chinese aggression for the foreseeable future, and provides the United States with another platform to strategically counter Beijing’s influence in the Pacific.
[1] “Remarks By President Obama to the Australian Parliament.” 17 Nov. 2011, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australian-parliament. Accessed 19 Sep. 2021.
[2] Luke Henriques Gomez, “Nearly 80 per cent foreign donations come from China, data shows,” The News Daily. 10 Dec. 2017, https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/12/10/chinese-donations-australia/.
[3] Paul Karp and Helen Davidson, “China bristles at Australia’s call for investigation into coronavirus origin,” The Guardian. 29 Apr. 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/australia-defends-plan-to-investigate-china-over-covid-19 -outbreak-as-row-deepens.
[4] “Australian, U.S. Defense Leaders Discuss Future of Alliance.” 15 Sep. 2021, https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2775515/australian-us-defense-leaders-discuss-futu re-of-alliance/.
[5] Jackson, Douglas D. “More than Submarines: Implications of AUKUS in the Air Domain.” Council on Foreign Relations. Council on Foreign Relations. Accessed October 26, 2021. https://www.cfr.org/blog/more-submarines-implications-aukus-air-domain.
[6] “April 9, 2021 – Dni.gov.” Accessed October 26, 2021. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2021-Unclassified-Report.pdf.
[7] Alastair Gale and Nancy A. Youssef, “US-Australia Submarine Pact Targets China’s Undersea Weakness,” The Wall Street Journal. 17 Sep. 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-australia-submarine-pact-targets-chinas-undersea-weakness-116318767 74.
[8] Josh Marcus, “‘A knife in the back’: France cancels gala in anger at US-Australia ….” Yahoo Finance. 16 Sep. 2021, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/knife-back-france-cancels-gala-192838597.html.
[9] Jones, Dustin. “Why a Submarine Deal Has France at Odds with the U.S., U.K. and Australia.” NPR. NPR, September 20, 2021. https://www.npr.org/2021/09/19/1038746061/submarine-deal-us-uk-australia-france.
[10] Krishn Kouchik, “Why France is seething: The US-Australia military deal that has ….” The Indian Express. 18 Sep. 2021, https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/why-france-is-seething-the-us-australia-military-deal-that-has- enraged-paris-7516335/.
[11] “Aukus: China Denounces US-Uk-Australia Pact as Irresponsible.” BBC News. BBC, September 17, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58582573.
Photo credits to USNI (United States Naval Institute)
Policy & Political Review 