December 29, 2021
The Capitol Riots, anti-Donald Trump rhetoric, and protecting our democracy. All of these are familiar themes to candidates of the Democratic Party like Terry McAuliffe. But does it actually resonate with voters? The Virginia gubernatorial race is a perfect place to look for this answer. As the 2022 midterms approach, the Democratic election playbook went head-to-head with the buzzword-laden Republican playbook in Virginia, and the results are in.
In the Virginia governor’s race, Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin managed to beat Democrat and former governor Terry McAuliffe with 50.8% of the vote, securing a Republican governorship in the state. This comes after previous Governor Ralph Northam led efforts to repeal voter ID laws, made election day a state holiday, and enacted automatic voter registration for anyone who receives a driver’s license. These efforts clearly worked, as more voters turned out for this election.[1] The Virginia election was accompanied by the highest voter turnout in recent history, which some attribute to early voting processes and massive campaign spending. Typically, Democrats attribute higher voter turnout to a better chance the party will perform well. This wasn’t the case in Virginia.
During the campaign trail, Youngkin was endorsed by former president Donald Trump, calling the endorsement “an honor.” The blessing of Donald Trump to any Republican running in today’s day and age is a formality. Youngkin distanced himself from the claims that the 2020 election was stolen, even dodging rallies during which Trump was promoting the conspiracy. Youngkin instead found his appeal to voters in the frustration that many were facing over COVID-19. He played up parents’ frustrations of mask mandates and school closures. He also focused on education with a push on banning critical race theory, and instead opting to educate children on “the good and the bad” of history. This resonated with voters across the state. Youngkin’s campaign managed to garner the support of the previous Trump voter base as well as those alienated by Trump, and used both groups to secure his vote.[2]
On the other hand, McAuliffe’s campaign, like much of democratic campaigning, has focused almost entirely on using stale anti-Trump rhetoric—a strategy that Democrats also used in New Jersey, which they narrowly won. In an attempt to garner support for McAuliffe, a group of Republican critics of Trump staged a publicity stunt by wearing white shirts, khaki pants, dark sunglasses, baseball caps, and carrying tiki torches in front of Youngkin’s campaign bus.[3] This was a callback to the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville in 2017. The group behind it, The Lincoln Project, admitted their involvement for the demonstration. The group has previously provided heavy endorsement for Joe Biden during his campaign, and has been active ever since. In the end, however, it only strengthened Youngkin’s campaign, as it was a poorly done publicity stunt. After the Lincoln Project was revealed as the group behind the stunt, it garnered more sympathy for Youngkin rather than gaining support for McAuliffe. Now that the results are in, Democrats have a tangible outcome of what their efforts and messaging earned them.
The messaging of the Democratic Party is vague and eluding to voters. In the 2020 election, votes for House seats ran behind presidential votes, meaning that the total vote cast for House Democrats was 3.9 million less than those cast for Joe Biden.[4] While seeming to be successful, the trend of declining house votes could cause Democrats a headache in the 2022 midterm. Having a broader base than simply ‘Donald Trump is bad’ is going to be what brings voters back to the Democrats. Regardless of one’s opinions on ideas such as banning critical race theory and mask mandates, these topics play into voter’s existent fears. Even if the voter does not understand exactly what these issues are, they fuel the fears of what they already expect; elites are targeting their values. On the other hand, the Democrats have not offered a platform as clear or coherent to their voters. Democrats can show these voters that their fears are baseless, and propose clear policies that aid voters. Continuing to perpetuate a crisis like stopping Donald Trump can only work for so long before people want real action in their daily lives.
Results like the Virginia election are only the beginning if Democrats don’t change their tactics before the 2022 midterm. Recently, Joe Biden’s approval rating dropped to 38%, with independents who won him the election moving away from him after seeing unfulfilled campaign promises.[5] The immense hole the Democrats must dig themselves out of can be remedied by clear and swift action upon meaningful topics, such as addressing policing issues, continuing to address environmental issues, and improving access to healthcare and housing. All of these were policy promises that have either been stalled or are in progress under the Biden administration.[6]
The election in Virginia could be an indicator of things to come. Trends seen in Virginia, New Jersey, and smaller elections across the country indicate a palpable shift away from the Democrats. While passing policies that bring in the democratic base would help immensly, the stalling of the infrastructure bill, as well as a seeming unwillingness to act on the Biden administration, does not bode well with voters. A clear message that tells voters exactly what the Democratic party is and stands for could stop the hemorrhage the party could experience in 2022.
[1] Ballotpedia. 2021. “Election results, 2021.” Ballotpedia. November. Accessed November 30, 2021. https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2021.
[2] Constantino, Annika Kim. 2021. “Virginia election sees highest turnout in recent history, fueling Glenn Youngkin’s victory.” CNBC. November 3. Accessed November 30, 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/virginia-election-sees-highest-turnout-in-recent-history-fueling-glenn-youngkins-victory.html.
[3] Elwood, Karina, and Gregory S. Schneider. 2021. “Lincoln Project organized a group to carry torches at Youngkin event in Charlottesville.” The Washington Post. October 29. Accessed November 30, 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/10/29/lincoln-project-torches-charlottesville-youngkin/.
[4] Galston, William A. 2020. “Why did House Democrats underperfom compared to Joe Biden?” Brookings. December 21. Accessed November 30, 2021. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/12/21/why-did-house-democrats-underperform-compared-to-joe-biden/.
[5] Page, Susan, and Rick Rouan. 2021. “Gloomy landscape for Democrats in midterms as Biden’s approval drops to 38% in USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.” USA Today. November 7. Accessed November 5, 2021. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/.
[6] The Poynter Institute. 2021. “Biden Promise Tracker.” Politifact. Accessed November 30, 2021. ttps://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/biden-promise-tracker/?ruling=true.
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