November 1, 2022
The 2022 election season in the United States and Brazil is shaping up to be a referendum on the two dominant personalities in both nations. In the US, the fight is between Former President Donald Trump and Incumbent and Former Vice President Joe Biden. Brazil is facing off between Former President Lula Inácio Lula da Silva and Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. This analysis seeks to understand how the political movements that Trump and Bolsonaro lead cultivate politicians like Biden and Lula and what Biden and Lula can – and have started to – do to avoid the resurgence of right-wing personality figures. In doing so, the analysis concludes that Trump and Bolsonaro cultivated political movements that demanded a political establishment response, and Biden and Lula must continue to emphasize the absurdity of Trump’s and Bolsonaro’s claims in order to win.
The 2022 election season in the United States and Brazil is shaping up to be a referendum on the two dominant personalities in both nations. This August, 51% of registered US voters are basing their midterm votes for House Representatives and Senators not on the candidates, but on President Biden’s performance.[i] At the same time, 63% of registered Republicans – making up nearly 1/3 of the American electorate – want Trump to remain as the symbol of the Republican party going into the midterms.[ii]
In Brazil, despite an October 2nd election of 11 different candidates for the Presidency, Brazilians have characterized this cycle as a “plebiscite” between the leftist candidate former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, and incumbent far-right President Jair Bolsonaro.[iii] Lula and Bolsonaro now head to a runoff on October 30th.
While analysts have noted the commonality between Trump and Bolsonaro’s styles of governance and rhetoric, little attention has been paid to the striking similarities between their liberal oppositions. This analysis seeks to understand how the political movements that Trump and Bolsonaro lead cultivate politicians like Biden and Lula and what Biden and Lula can – and have started to – do to avoid the resurgence of right-wing personality figures.
Forcing the Liberal Hand: Trump and Bolsonaro’s Political Strategy
Characterizing the Trump and Bolsonaro presidencies has been tough for analysts. On a personality level, the New York Times characterized both as “a brash nationalist whose populist appeal comes partly from his use of Twitter and his history of making crude statements about women, gay people and indigenous groups.”[iv] But the two men’s similarities end when comparing enacted policy. During their campaigns both touted moving their Israeli embassies to Jerusalem, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accords, and challenging Chinese economic dominance.[v] While Trump committed to all of these actions, Bolsonaro has stepped away from his more salacious campaign promises and acquiesced to China’s role as Brazil’s largest trade partner.[vi] On the surface Trump and “Trump of the Tropics” seem to move in lockstep, but their similar personalities have not flowed into similar policy.
This presents a problem for comparing the oppositions to Trump and Bolsonaro. As political scientist Robert Dahl noted in his seminal 1966 book “Political Opposition in Western Democracies,” while opposition is a vague term, it generally applies when one political group does not like the strategies utilized by the political group with formal authority.[vii] Since Trump’s and Bolsonaro’s policies part ways on policy, it becomes more difficult to link the opposition Biden leads as structurally similar to Lula’s.
The Biden-Lula-type opposition is based not on opposing governmental policy, but on beating the political strategies that both Trump and Bolsonaro utilize. Trump has become infamous for his shadowy campaign following his November 8th, 2020, election loss to Joe Biden where he attempted to subvert the certification of state elector slates and questioned the veracity of electronic voting machines in states that were key to determining the winner.[viii] Bolsonaro has recognized Trump’s futile attempt to retain power after the election and has chosen to lay the groundwork for election skepticism. He has campaign profusely that electronic voting machines ought not be trusted and that any result other than victory is proof of a liberal conspiracy against him and his supporters.[ix]
Additionally, both have aggressively sought public attention. Since June 26th, 2021, Trump has held 27 campaign rallies to support his endorsed candidates in various state and federal positions[x], amounting to roughly one rally every 18 days. Trump and his political allies have used these rallies to increasingly accuse Democrats of “wanting Republicans dead”[xi] and portraying Trump as the last bastion against a Democratic cabal.[xii] In Brazil, Bolsonaro recently used the Bicentennial celebrations for Brazil’s Independence to host rallies and speeches in support of his reelection, a step many of his opponents avoided.[xiii] Bolsonaro’s rhetoric, too, continues to emphasize that the status quo political situation in Brazil and Latin America at large is untenable, saying that “Our generation can’t be remembered in the future as one that had a chance to do something but cowered before two or three people.”[xiv]. Trump and Bolsonaro use intense public attention to spread dissatisfaction and fear of the status quo.
Blatant election denial and political omnipresence is the definitive unifying policy of Trump and Bolsonaro, and this is what Biden and Lula are running and governing in opposition to. But the reason it is Biden and Lula leading these oppositions is no coincidence, as highlighted by the antiestablishment emphasis of Trump and Bolsonaro.
Biden’s familiarity among voters across the nation secured his place as the only establishment figure trusted to oust the uncomfortability of Trump. The 2020 Democratic primary was, from the start, a race to find who can defeat Trump.[xv] In other words, Trump’s antiestablishment rhetoric framed the Democratic primary, and thus played an outsize role in determining who the nominee would be. By and large, candidates tried to prove their viability against Trump by touting their connections to Obama, believing they could tap into the safety that Obama’s reputation emanated.[xvi] But in contrast to the Senators and other local and state figures running – in other words, those that only have at-best state-level voter mandates – Biden was the only nationally-tested and experienced candidate. While other candidates could represent themselves as Obama-adjacent, Biden was the only one who could directly tap into the Obama legacy of stability and trust. NPR noted in August 2020 that Biden’s primary victory can be attributed to that trust that Biden engendered across the political spectrum.[xvii] Biden was the symbol of stability in a familiar status quo that was all too fraught between 2016 and 2020. The uncomfortable changes to US politics during the Trump presidency led to a 2020 Democratic primary that sought a candidate with broad-based trust and familiarity amongst the electorate, and Biden’s establishment credentials from a popular president meant voters saw him as the one who could stabilize the nation. This mandate materialized in the general election when Biden made gains across the board in demographics Democrats had lost in 2016.[xviii]
Unfortunately for Biden, Trump’s own ascendency to power was marked by a similar coalition bolstered by a growth in support from certain demographics, namely white voters without college degrees.[xix] This coalition, in contrast to Biden’s, was built on antiestablishment sentiments, and is why, while Trump lost in 2020, key states were decided with razor-thin margins.[xx] Biden’s primary victory revolved around defeating Trump, and Biden’s political journey will always be marked as the candidacy that is accountable for keeping Trump at bay.
Similarly, Brazilians rallied behind Lula primarily as the anti-Bolsonaro candidate. Going into the 2018 general election Brazil was reeling from its ruling Worker’s Party, known as PT, being uncovered as complicit in the largest foreign corruption scandal in history. Lula’s Vice President, Dilma Rousseff, who succeeded him in 2011, as well as her Vice President were impeached for their involvement in the scandal, and Lula was criminally charged with being complicit in the corrupt dealings.[xxi] Despite this, Lula was the runaway favorite in the 2018 election up until his formal disqualification due to his corruption charges, with roughly 35% support throughout the campaign compared to Bolsonaro’s paltry 15% through the same period.[xxii] Unlike Biden, Lula never had to vie to lead the left-wing of the political scene, namely because the alternative was Bolsonaro, who sought to dismantle the PT framework that Lula had built[xxiii] and allowed him to leave office with nearly 80% approval.[xxiv] While Lula was undoubtably headed toward the presidency once more, it was Bolsonaro’s rhetoric that propelled him to be the favorite throughout the 2018 election.
Since Bolsonaro has run heavily on anti-PT policies following the corruption scandals, he is uniquely placed to challenge Lula directly in 2022. Once the impartiality of the lead judge of Lula’s case was questioned and Lula’s record expunged, making him eligible to run again, Lula pushed to return Brazil to familiar times under his leadership.[xxv] Despite Lula’s innocence in relation to these corruption charges, though, Bolsonaro has doubled down on corruption as the primary reason to distrust Lula; in their first head-to-head debate this October, Bolsonaro ended his remarks by saying Brazilians do not want “a country of theft.”[xxvi] Lula is a symbol of an establishment that people benefitted from, but Bolsonaro has spent his campaign framing him as the establishment that broke the trust of the Brazilian people just as he did in 2018.
From the perspective of Trump and Bolsonaro’s near-identical political strategy, the resurgence of previously popular national political figures like Biden and Lula makes sense. More concerningly, though, it seems to be playing into the hands of Trump and Bolsonaro. In the US Midterms, Republicans have garnered an increased edge over Democrats following a recent surge in Democratic support,[xxvii] with more than 300 Republican candidates parroting election denial claims on the ballot this November.[xxviii] In Brazil, going into the October 2nd first round, Bolsonaro was projected to receive roughly 36%, but stunned analysts with a 43% total at the end of the night that has been attributed to “tactical” voting against Lula as a symbol of past corruption by his political party.[xxix] While these trends are certainly attributable to many factors in the US and Brazil, Trump and Bolsonaro’s rhetoric and publicity, in tandem with the opposition that was tailor-made for them in Biden and Lula, makes clear that Trump and Bolsonaro have expertly wielded a formidably powerful tool of politics. Entering the final stretch of the 2022 election cycles in both countries, Trump and Bolsonaro have convinced major swaths of their electorates to fundamentally reconsider the political reality of their nations.
How Biden and Lula can Turn the Tide
Trump and Bolsonaro undoubtably have political gold mines in front of them with figures like Biden and Lula. For Trump, Biden is a constant reminder to his supporters of the anathema that was the 2020 election, an issue clearly energizing his base. For Bolsonaro, Lula and his party will always be tarnished with the corruption that Bolsonaro has characterized as inherent to the political establishment and making Lula a proof of concept for Bolsonarismo. Despite this, Biden and Lula have creatively navigated the political attacks they face.
As noted previously, by sowing distrust in trusted figures, Trump and Bolsonaro can capitalize by framing the political conversation on their terms that the status quo is untenable. The primary vehicle Trump and Bolsonaro have used to achieve this has been relentless public attention and constantly remind voters across the political spectrum that they are here to stay and fight.
In the US, Biden has let Trump’s strength of public charisma become his folly. As Ezra Klein notes for the New York Times:
“Biden gives startingly-few interviews and news conferences. He doesn’t go for attention-grabbing stunts or high-engagement tweets. […] Biden simply doesn’t take up much room in the political discourse. He is a far less central, compelling and controversial figure than Trump or Barack Obama or George W. Bush was before him. […] Biden’s appeal to Democrats has been transactional more than inspirational. You don’t need to love, or even really to like, Biden to support him. You need to believe in him as a vehicle for stopping something worse.”[xxx]
Biden knows that his support has never and will never be from the same source as Trump’s: he was elected foremost to repudiate Trump’s brashness. While Biden may not want to have to relitigate the same issue that got him elected two years ago, given how voters are approaching the midterms as a referendum on Biden it makes sense to remind voters that they do not want Trump by letting Trump speak for himself. And then let him be the only one talking. That is not to say Biden has not avoided engaging Trump directly – On September 1st, 2022, he labelled Trump and his “MAGA Republican” supporters as “semi-fascist.”[xxxi] But Biden’s choices look more like keeping an ideological fire stoked rather than a tit-for-tat campaign that draws away from the actual candidates on the ballot.
Lula’s strategy has been strikingly similar to Biden’s approach to the 2020 election. New York Times Brazil bureau chief Jack Nicas notes that Lula has attempted to appeal to the center and build coalitions[xxxii], notably by nominating his 2006 presidential rival Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate[xxxiii]. This coalition building has already sent a clear message to Bolsonaro, who seems to be sterilizing his rhetoric around extremism.[xxxiv] And as Bolsonaro has harkened back to Lula’s term by mentioning his political party’s corruption, Lula has continued to tout the successes of his administration; if Bolsonaro wants to shed light on the Lula administration, Lula takes the opportunity to emphasize why his experience is necessary. In a France24 interview in 2021, Lula calls back to his own administration’s response to economic growth, inflation, and creating jobs – all issues at the forefront of Brazil’s politics today.[xxxv] Differing from Biden, though, is Lula’s own use of extreme rhetoric to counter Bolsonaro’s brashness. In the same interview, Lula utilizes sensational titles for Bolsonaro like “agent of genocide” and “fascistic.”[xxxvi] By using Bolsonaro’s own tactics, Lula is able to label Bolsonaro’s administration as the status quo that is too extreme and that he is uniquely placed to fight that radicalism, ultimately amping up the emotional energy that Bolsonaro used to get elected in 2018.
Conclusion
Trump and Bolsonaro represented stark repudiations to the dominant political currents when they were respectively elected in 2016 and 2018. Both generated discomfort among the electorate with the direction their countries were headed. In the US, finding the candidate to reverse this course required reflecting on the legacy of the preceding Obama Administration and determining how to utilize its familiarity to defeat Trump. In Brazil, Brazilians were keenly aware of the strength of Lula and knew that in a party destroyed by corruption he stood out as a legitimate leader. And while both Biden and Lula have succeeded thus far in repudiating Trump and Bolsonaro, it is becoming clear that Biden and Lula are still stymied by the antiestablishment campaign Trump and Bolsonaro have diligently waged, precisely because Biden and Lula have been trusted to destroy them, yet they still persist. As the October runoff in Brazil and US midterms fast approach, observers should note the conversations about democratic strength and trust in the electoral system. The unstoppable force that is Trumpian antiestablishment rhetoric and Bolsonarismo is quickly approaching the immovable rock of Biden’s and Lula’s promise to return to better days and ward off authoritarianism. Which will budge first?
Thank you to University of Pittsburgh Professor of Political Science Dr. Scott Morgenstern for his valuable input in shaping this piece.
[i] “Abortion Rises in Importance as a Voting Issue, Driven by Democrats.” Pew Research Center – U.S. Politics & Policy. Pew Research Center, August 23, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/23/abortion-rises-in-importance-as-a-voting-issue-driven-by-democrats/.
[ii] “2. Perceptions of Biden and Views of Trump’s Future.” Pew Research Center – U.S. Politics & Policy. Pew Research Center, August 23, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/23/perceptions-of-biden-and-views-of-trumps-future/.
[iii] Mendes, Felipe. “Tactical Vote Gains Ground in the Political Debate and Can Define the Election in the 1st Round.” Brasil de Fato, September 22, 2022. https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2022/09/22/tactical-vote-gains-ground-in-the-political-debate-and-can-define-the-election-in-the-1st-round.
[iv]Shear, Michael, and Maggie Haberman. “For Trump, Brazil’s President Is like Looking in the Mirror.” The New York Times. The New York Times, March 19, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/19/us/politics/bolsonaro-trump.html.
[v] Quillian, Sumaya. “The Similarities and Differences between Trump and Bolsonaro.” Pacific Council on International Policy, January 16, 2019. https://www.pacificcouncil.org/newsroom/similarities-and-differences-between-trump-and-bolsonaro.
[vi] Quillian, 2019.
[vii] Dahl, Robert Alan. Political Opposition in Western Democracies. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966.
[viii] Clark, Doug Bock, Alexandra Berzon, and Kirsten Berg. “Building the ‘Big Lie’: Inside the Creation of Trump’s Stolen Election Myth.” ProPublica, April 26, 2022. https://www.propublica.org/article/big-lie-trump-stolen-election-inside-creation.
[ix] Muggah, Robert. “Bolsonaro Is Following Trump’s Anti-Democracy Playbook.” Foreign Policy, January 14, 2021. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/14/bolsonaro-brazil-trump-anti-democracy-elections/.
[x] “List of Post–2016 Election Donald Trump Rallies.” Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, October 19, 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_post%E2%80%932016_election_Donald_Trump_rallies#2022_midterm_rallies_(June_2021–present).
[xi] Collinson, Stephen. “Trump’s Violent Rhetoric Conjures Chilling Echoes as Midterms Loom | CNN Politics.” CNN. Cable News Network, October 4, 2022. https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/04/politics/trump-violent-rhetoric-analysis.
[xii] Megerian, Chris. “For Biden and Trump, 2022 Is 2020 Sequel – and 2024 Preview?” AP NEWS. Associated Press, October 17, 2022. https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-presidential-election-2020-government-and-politics-d5e2272c275d2c443c3cff54f99d35e7.
[xiii] “Brazil’s Bolsonaro Leads Massive Independence Day Rallies.” Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera, September 7, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/7/brazils-bolsonaro-leads-massive-independence-day-rally.
[xiv] Iglesias, Simone Preissler, and Isadora Sanches. “Bolsonaro Is Stepping up Radical Rhetoric in Brazil Election Run-Up.” Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg, August 10, 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-10/bolsonaro-is-stepping-up-his-radical-rhetoric-in-election-run-up.
[xv] Halper, Evan, and Janet Hook. “In 2020 Primary, Beating Trump Outweighs Local Loyalties for New Hampshire Democrats.” Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times, January 26, 2020. https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-01-26/for-2020-primary-looms-new-hampshire-democrats-rethink-their-love-affair-with-the-candidates-next-door.
[xvi] “Meet the Press Blog Archive.” NBCNews.com. NBCUniversal News Group, May 4, 2021. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541.
[xvii] Elving, Ron. “Joe Biden’s Long and Rocky Road to the Democratic Nomination.” NPR. NPR, August 16, 2020. https://www.npr.org/2020/08/16/902640265/joe-bidens-long-and-rocky-road-to-the-democratic-nomination.
[xviii] “Behind Biden’s 2020 Victory.” Pew Research Center – U.S. Politics & Policy. Pew Research Center, May 6, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/.
[xix] Tyson, Alec, and Shiva Maniam. “Behind Trump’s Victory: Divisions by Race, Gender, Education.” Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center, August 14, 2020. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/.
[xx] Swasey, Benjamin, and Connie Hanzhang Jin. “Narrow Wins in These Key States Powered Biden to the Presidency.” NPR. NPR, December 2, 2020. https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency.
[xxi] “Brazil’s Ex-President Lula Sentenced to Nearly 10 Years in Prison for Corruption.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, July 12, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/12/brazil-president-lula-convicted-corruption.
[xxii] Gonzalez, Elizabeth. “Poll Tracker: Brazil’s 2018 Presidential Election.” AS/COA. AS/COA, October 28, 2018. https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-brazils-2018-presidential-election.
[xxiii] “Bolsonaro: A Year of Anti-Establishment Uproar in Brazil.” France 24. France 24, December 21, 2019. https://www.france24.com/en/20191221-bolsonaro-a-year-of-anti-establishment-uproar-in-brazil.
[xxiv] “Brazil’s Lula to Leave with Record-High Popularity.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, December 16, 2010. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-lula-poll/brazils-lula-to-leave-with-record-high-popularity-idUSTRE6BF4O620101216.
[xxv] Chade, Jamil. “Jamil Chade – Comitê Da Onu Conclui Que Moro Foi Parcial e Dá Vitória Para Lula.” Notícias. UOL, April 27, 2022. https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/jamil-chade/2022/04/27/comite-da-onu-conclui-que-moro-foi-parcial-e-da-vitoria-para-lula.htm.
[xxvi] Harris, Bryan. “Jair Bolsonaro Attacks Lula on Corruption in First Head-to-Head Debate.” | Financial Times. Financial Times, October 17, 2022. https://www.ft.com/content/27e8a949-c3c8-4298-99c1-8c56c31231b1.
[xxvii] Goldmacher, Shane. “Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry about Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds.” The New York Times. The New York Times, October 17, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/us/politics/republicans-economy-nyt-siena-poll.html?searchResultPosition=3.
[xxviii] Kamarck, Elaine, and Norman Eisen. “Democracy on the Ballot-How Many Election Deniers Are on the Ballot in November and What Is Their Likelihood of Success?” Brookings. Brookings, October 12, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/10/07/democracy-on-the-ballot-how-many-election-deniers-are-on-the-ballot-in-november-and-what-is-their-likelihood-of-success/.
[xxix] “Datafolha: Bolsonaro Received Tactical Votes at the Last Minute.” Folha de S.Paulo, October 4, 2022. https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/brazil/2022/10/datafolha-bolsonaro-received-tactical-votes-at-the-last-minute.shtml.
[xxx] Klein, Ezra. “Joe Biden Knows How to Use Donald Trump.” The New York Times. The New York Times, October 9, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/09/opinion/biden-trump-midterms.html?searchResultPosition=4.
[xxxi] Biden, Joseph. “Remarks by President Biden on the Continued Battle for the Soul of the Nation.” The White House. The United States Government, September 3, 2022. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/09/01/remarks-by-president-bidenon-the-continued-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-nation/.
[xxxii] Moses, Claire. “A Choice between Two Heavyweights.” The New York Times. The New York Times, October 2, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/02/briefing/a-choice-between-two-heavyweights.html.
[xxxiii] Boadle, Anthony. “Former Sao Paulo Governor Alckmin Joins Leftist Party to Be Lula’s Running Mate.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, March 23, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/former-sao-paulo-governor-alckmin-joins-leftist-party-be-lulas-running-mate-2022-03-23/.
[xxxiv] Nicas, Jack. “On Brazil’s Bicentennial, Softer Rhetoric from a President.” The New York Times. The New York Times, September 7, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/07/world/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-bicentennial.html.
[xxxv] Former Brazilian President Lula: ‘Jair Bolsonaro Is an Agent of Genocide’. YouTube. YouTube, 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdMWXRsntIk.
[xxxvi] Former Brazilian President Lula: ‘Jair Bolsonaro Is an Agent of Genocide’. YouTube. YouTube, 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdMWXRsntIk.
Image by Phil Roeder via Wikimedia Commons under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Joe_Biden_Rally_at_Hiatt_Middle_School_-_49480899101.jpg.
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