Paul Beer

November 1, 2022

Where are Democrats Missing Out?

Every other November, midterm elections test the dominant party’s success, or perceived success, during their previous two years. Essentially, voters receive the opportunity to reaffirm what they had already voted on two years prior, allowing for an update on which national and local issues are most important. The 2022 midterms are set in a precarious time for Democrats. With Biden’s low approval rating, and controversy over the acceptance of landmark legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats should expect to lose both chambers. They may, however, avoid a total midterm chamber flip through the emboldened party’s stance on abortion rights.[1] This cycle, abortion rights are firmly on the ballot, after the recent decision to overturn Roe V. Wade by the U.S. Supreme Court. Yet, Democrats cannot win on this platform alone.

Even with polling numbers boosted by excitement over the potential codification of abortion rights, Democrats are still expected to lose the House of Representatives,[2] and to barely squeak out a majority in the Senate.

Democratic policy as it stands is not enough to keep voters on their side. The economy is rated as the top issue this midterm, with 27% calling it the single most important issue, and another 58% rating it “very important.” Inflation, related to “the economy,” is the second most important issue with another firm majority calling it “very important.”[3] These rankings reflect America’s lackadaisical response to the Democrat-backed Inflation Reduction Act, which passed in August 2022. Only 34% of voters approved of it, with another 25% stating that they had never even heard of it, despite it being one of Biden’s landmark policies. Appealing to voters on these issues then, for Democrats, is seemingly off the table. Abortion, the third most popular issue, is already in Democratic hands. So, where ought Democrats look for the final expansive push required to win the 2022 midterms?

Making further in-roads to Republican & Independent voters can be achieved through a meaningful change in policy on one key midterm issue: immigration.

Where the Parties Stand on Immigration

For years, Republican politicians from border states have lambasted Democratic policy for its seemingly “open border” stance. Encounters with migrants in border towns is reaching record highs.[4] As a political statement, Republican politicians like Ron DeSantis have increased the degree to which they will make immigration a national issue: by sending immigrants from San Antonio, TX, to Martha’s Vineyard, MA, a famous vacation destination for the affluent and politically connected. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (TX-R) states, “We are being invaded.”[5] The response in these areas has been clear: something must be done to ease the burden on citizens who are facing the wave of post-Covid immigration.

The Republican doctrine on immigration steadily shifts to the right each election cycle. In the past, Republicans supported streamlined pathways for immigrants to gain citizenship, and the question of a border wall was not heavily discussed. Now, the border wall is one of the House Republicans’ main priorities; that is, tapping into the same appeal that Trump found in talking of constructing a strong barrier to prevent undocumented migrants from entering the country. The House Republican Conference has also developed more strict border control and security plans through the American Security Task Force. Additionally, the potential exists for a reinstatement of the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which forces migrants to stay south of the border while their cases are being handled.

Similarly, on deportation, Republican House members intend to ramp up security efforts to deport more than just those posed as high-risk to national security.[6] Finally, new detail would be added to acceptable asylum-seeking status, minimizing what Republicans deem a loophole: that anyone can claim asylum when reaching the border. These policies reflect the basic principles that guided the Trump presidency’s era of immigration. 

The 2020 Democratic platform relied heavily on the undoing of every Trump-era immigration policy;[7] including the border wall, increased security and use of the military, deportation measures, and tightening asylum regulations. Empowered by the controversial “children in cages” reporting that occurred during under Trump, the “reunification of families” policy would give partial immigrant families in the United States the opportunity to be made whole again.

Democrats believe strongly in the path-to-citizenship approach,[8] which would streamline the process of formalizing citizenship for undocumented workers and children who are currently active in the country, instead of deporting them. On top of this, immigration quotas would continue to expand. Specifically, the ceiling on immigrants entering to escape violence and trafficking would increase.

The end of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids, focused on deportation within a community, are also a Democratic immigration policy priority. Some progressives are even in favor of abolishing ICE altogether, reflecting a stark policy shift that some Democrats are not ready to pursue.

Polling: Where do Voters Stand on Immigration?

While most voters feel that the economy is the most important issue, immigration is the key issue for 14% of voters, with almost half stating it was “very important.” For Republicans alone, 22% cite it as the key issue (second place, after inflation).

While only 39% of Democrats state that deportations of illegal immigrants must increase (in direct contradiction to the party platform), 79% of Republicans agree. Further, the vast majority of Republicans (91%) and many of Democrats (59%) state that security must be increased along the border. Meanwhile, immigration policy that retains immigrants and grants them a path to citizenship, protects war refugees and children are very favorable among Democrats, while Republicans only meagerly care about those policies (hovering around 50%, each).[9]

In a poll conducted by the University of Texas, 54% of Republicans stated that either “border security” or “immigration” (distinctly separate categories in this poll) was the most important issue for this midterm,[10] much higher than the national average. This pattern is already established precedent too, as for the past decade these issues have been at the top of the ballot.

A vast majority of Republicans and around 26% of Democrats stated that the policy of bussing migrants away from Texas while they wait for court hearings was a good policy,[11] representing a commitment to removing immigrants from Texas using any means necessary.

In the same way universal abortion access attracts abortion-first voters to the Democratic platform, immigration-security-first voters are attracted to the Republican platform. As Texas continues to trend Republican overall, and Texans cite immigration as their key issue, one can presume that the Democratic platform is simply not doing enough to entice immigration-first voters to their side, even given the political climate surrounding this midterm with other pressing issues at play. 

Democrats in Texas

Democrat Henry Cuellar (TX-28) is fighting for retention of a newly gerrymandered district in Texas, which positions him along a sizable portion of the border and includes San Antonio suburbs. His immigration policies may offer a glimpse into what Democrats must do to be competitive in Texas. This race has bounced between toss-up, and recently, lean-Democratic.[12] Politico notes that he has proven “resilient,” despite in-roads being made all around his district by Republicans. Importantly too, he defeated an anti-ICE progressive candidate in the primaries.

Though in opposition to a border wall (something that may separate him too much from Republicans), his past work has achieved further transparency and better management in border detention centers (but not their removal). He supports specific security infrastructure changes to the ports of entry, and a great increase in border patrol, working alongside raid patrols and law enforcement to gather information on stopping the negatives of immigration: drug flow and trafficking.[13] Democrats lack the experience with border policy and border attentiveness that Cuellar handles. His policies take a firm stance on things that both parties’ voters ask for, conceding a few things to Democratic platform (ex: a border wall), but includes room for more security, funding for border police, and working with raid patrollers instead of dismantling them. Whether or not his policies step far enough outside the Democratic box will determine his seat.

Upon analysis of his opponent, Cassy Garcia, her immigration policy resembles that of Trump’s. Her social media signals support for policies including child-separation, Title 42 (Public Health) deportations, and Trump-era deterrence policies.[14] However, her campaign site directly states no specific policy ideals, and minimally mentions immigration.

Where Cuellar must state and overstate his separation from traditional Democratic policy on immigration and progressivism, Garcia has the beneficial position of being recognized as a Trump subsidiary, coming with all his immigration policy. A Democrat who steps outside the boundary of traditional Democrat policy ought to continually affirm that commitment to convince Republican voters to take them seriously. Otherwise, they get lambasted as just another part of the system that voters know them for.

In another district, TX-23, which spans a major part of the border and includes suburbs of San Antonio, the Republican incumbent, Tony Gonzalez won his seat in 2020 by just 4%. Where Gonzalez keeps the momentum of being a candidate with a clear vision on immigration bestowed upon him by party recognition, and a plentiful campaign webpage, Democratic candidate John Lira’s campaign site is sparse with platforms on immigration. His only claims about immigration are rife with non-complete answers, including finding “long-term, humane border solutions.”[15] This type of discussion of border issues is not valuable to the climate of a Texas House race. Where Cuellar champions a new form of policy on immigration for Democrats, Lira fails miserably to make even a single statement, which will undoubtedly cost him the race. Politico rates this race a likely Republican victory for Tony Gonzales.[16]

The degree to which a Democrat is likely to work with Republicans on immigration issues is paramount to their success in Texas. Numerous Texas Democrats are running in districts where they are bound to lose, without changing any of their policy stances to accommodate running in Republican-led territory where immigration is an important issue. It is vital that Democrats look to Cuellar, one of the few Democrats with a pronounced immigration policy, and one that is sure to aid him this election. His competitiveness relies on the fact that he takes a firm stance on immigration.

In effect, Republicans do not seem keen on moving leftward for Democrats; thus, Democrats in border states must move further toward Republicans to secure seats along the border. Democrats are destined to lose this midterm on the economy and inflation, so they must pull any stops to secure a victory. By caving on immigration policy, Democrats can bolster other key issues like abortion, while remaining a viable option for red or purple leaning border districts.

This piece was edited by Thomas Riley, Ethan Rubenstein, and Elise Romero.

[1] Annie Linskey and Katie Shepherd, “Democrats Emboldened after Kansas Abortion Vote, as They Eye Fall Campaign,” The Washington Post (WP Company, August 4, 2022), https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/03/democrats-abortion-midterms-kansas/.

[2] Steve Shepard, “House Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races,” POLITICO, accessed October 17, 2022, https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/house/.

[3] Dan Balz, Emily Guskin, and Scott Clement, “Voters Divided amid Intense Fight for Control of Congress, Poll Finds,” The Washington Post (WP Company, September 25, 2022), https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/09/25/control-house-senate-2022-election-polls/.

[4] Jonnelle Marte and Augusta Saraiva, “US Immigration Rebounds but Remains Far from Plugging Labor Gaps,” Bloomberg.com (Bloomberg, October 5, 2022), https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/us-immigration-rebounds-but-remains-far-from-plugging-labor-gaps?leadSource=uverify+wall.

[5] James Barragán and Heidi Pérez-Moreno, “Critics Denounce Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick’s ‘Invasion’ Rhetoric on Immigration, Saying It Will Incite Violence,” The Texas Tribune (The Texas Tribune, June 17, 2021), https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/17/greg-abbott-dan-patrick-el-paso-invasion-immigration/.

[6] Caroline Coudriet, “Republicans Plot Immigration Moves If They Control House,” Roll Call, July 21, 2022, https://rollcall.com/2022/07/21/republicans-plot-immigration-moves-if-they-control-house/.

[7] “Immigration Reform,” Democrats, July 25, 2019, https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/the-issues/immigration-reform/.

[8] “Creating a 21st Century Immigration System,” Democrats, accessed October 20, 2022, https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/creating-a-21st-century-immigration-system/.

[9] J. Baxter Oliphant and Andy Cerda, “Republicans and Democrats Have Different Top Priorities for U.S. Immigration Policy,” Pew Research Center (Pew Research Center, September 8, 2022), https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/09/08/republicans-and-democrats-have-different-top-priorities-for-u-s-immigration-policy/.

[10] Jim Henson Henson and Joshua Blank, “New UT/Texas Politics Project Poll: Abbott Maintains 45%-40% Lead over O’Rourke; 52% Support Busing Migrants out of Texas,” The Texas Politics Project, September 15, 2022, https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/new-uttexas-politics-project-poll-abbott-maintains-45-40-lead-over-o%E2%80%99rourke-52-support-busing#Immigration%20and%20border%20issues.

[11] Megan Calongne, “New Poll Indicates a Majority of Texas Voters Support Relocating Migrants,” KBTX, September 16, 2022, https://www.kbtx.com/2022/09/17/new-poll-indicates-majority-texas-voters-support-relocating-migrants/.

[12] “Texas’s 28th District Race 2022: Election Forecast, Ratings & Predictions,” POLITICO, accessed October 20, 2022, https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/texas/house/district-28/.

[13] “Border & Homeland Security,” United States Congress (house.gov), accessed October 20, 2022, https://cuellar.house.gov/issues/issue/?IssueID=3833.

[14] “Cassandra ‘Cassy’ Garcia (TX-28) Research Memo 1 – Dccc.org,” DCCC, April 2022, https://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/220427-Cassy-Garcia-TX-28-Research-Memo-ONLINE-FINAL.pdf.

[15] “Immigration,” John Lira for Congress, May 24, 2022, https://liraforcongress.com/issues/immigration/.

[16] “Texas’s 23rd District Race 2022: Election Forecast, Ratings & Predictions,” POLITICO, accessed October 20, 2022, https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/texas/house/district-23/.

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