Gabe Lopata

27 October 2023

Following the 2020 presidential election, many Republican lawmakers felt unsatisfied and questioned the validity of the turnout. Since the 2020 election, there have been over 35 restrictive laws put in place to inhibit many aspects of voting (1). These voter restriction policies target access to mail-in ballots, voter registration groups, convicted felons and others figuring out their voter eligibility, and more. On the other hand, at least 19 voter expansion laws have been put into place to improve voting access, or make it easier to vote through increased access to mail-in ballots, easier voter registration processes, and easier voter eligibility checks (1). Given the close outcome of the 2020 presidential election, the swing states in America will have a great impact on the next election, and these new bills will influence the turnout in these states. Though the majority of the swing states swung Democratic in 2020, they have the ability to swing right back, and the new legislation could drastically impact this. These actions will certainly affect the upcoming presidential election, and it will be very important to see how much harder, or easier, they make it for voters within swing states in America, as these states will be crucial for the upcoming election.  

45 of the 50 states have introduced bills that would help restrict voting (1). Though not all of them have been enacted, or will be enacted, they have presence in nearly every state. Many of the states that are passing these bills that work to restrict voting rights and make voting more difficult for people are states that voted red in the past presidential election. Many people who support former president Donald Trump were furious with the results of the election and joined him in claiming falsity within the results (2). There have been over 400 bills introduced that aim to restrict voting rights due to this (1). They focus mainly on the most popular recent aspects of voting: mail-in ballots, campaigning rights, and voter eligibility restrictions. These are the main focuses of the bills. However, given their presence throughout the country, we see a multitude of bills that focus on dozens of different restrictions. Though many states do not have enough Republican representation within their legislatures, the states that do were able to pass these laws in time for the upcoming presidential election in 2024.  

These two new waves of legislature – election interference and voter restriction – are aiming to make it more difficult for people, specifically underrepresented people and minorities, to vote. Election interference is defined as legislation that aims to threaten the people and processes that make elections work, and increases opportunity for partisan interference (1). Restrictive legislation is when a bill aims to restrict one or more provisions that would make it harder for eligible voters to vote, register, or sustain eligibility (1). It has been statistically proven time and time again within the United States that Black and Latino people are disproportionately incarcerated for felony convictions, and these laws that are being introduced and passed are targeting convicted felons who have recently been released from prison. Many Democratic states are trying to rival these new bills and have passed laws restoring voting rights to felons directly upon release. Voter expansion laws are characterized as laws that will make it easier for eligible voters to cast a vote or register to vote. There is a wide range of action within these laws, but the majority of them focus on voter access. They focus on access to mail in voting, early voting, and even easier voter registration.  

Given that most of the states that are enacting voter restriction laws are those that tend to vote for Republican candidates in the presidential elections, it would be very surprising to see any changes in the outcomes of their elections. Based on historic trends, the states that tend to vote Republican in every election will continue to vote Republican, and the voter restriction laws will not have a great effect on the outcome of their elections. If anything, it would be reasonable to assume that these restrictions will simply decrease the number of people who vote in these states, as seen following the Supreme Court’s Shelby v. Holder case (3), with the distribution of Republican and Democratic votes seeing little to no change. The Shelby v. Holder case saw voter restrictions being implemented nationwide following the Supreme Court’s decision to overrule Section Four of the Voting Rights Act, prohibiting states from implementing suppressive voter laws (3). The main states that will be affected by voter restriction laws are the swing states throughout America. Though there are some states that have historically been swing states and no longer are, there are about a dozen states that are currently considered battleground states (4). The criteria for considering these as swing states was the margin of victory based on percentage points, as each of these states was won by 3 percentage points or less. The most vital states in the past few elections have been Pennsylvania and Georgia, who have the most electoral college votes. These two states have been extremely close the past two elections, and in 2020, Pennsylvania put Joe Biden over the edge to win the presidency. This shows the tightness of the outcomes within each of these states, and given this, it is clear that with just a small amount of representation from one side or another, the outcome could sway and cause drastic changes to the election. 

Joe Biden was able to win the majority of these swing states in 2020, which is ultimately the reason he won the election (4). He won six out of seven of the most popular battleground states, which is very surprising given the outcome of the 2016 election between Biden’s competitor Donald Trump and Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton. In 2016, Trump was able to win in six of the seven swing states, five of them by less than one percentage point and one by less than four percentage points. Trump then lost six of these seven in the next election where he faced Biden, showing the unpredictableness within these states. This is why swing states are commonly the most important states in the elections – neither Biden nor Trump would have won their presidencies without swinging these states in their favor.

The vast majority of the bills passed focus on restricting mail-in ballots (1). This was a focal point of the 2020 election, and many lawmakers and elected officials claimed they were the main reason there was unfairness with the results. States have been focusing on the topic of unsolicited mail-in ballots being sent out, as they believe that they can lead to election interference and voter fraud (1). PA Act 77 passed in 2019 permitted no-excuse mail in ballots, and Governor Shapiro has stated he will veto any effort to overturn this (5). Some states are trying to make it illegal for elected officials to send out unsolicited mail-in ballots, while other states are trying to make it illegal for anyone other than elected officials to send them out (1). Historically, there has been very little consistency when it comes to states’ views on mail-in ballots, as many of the Republican-leaning states historically opposed them, while Democratic states are in support of them. However, in recent months, Republican candidates have begun pushing mail in ballots, as they realized that opposing them gives the Democrats an advantage that they cannot afford to let them have (6). They realized that if they opposed mail-in ballots, they would then be discouraging their voters from using this form of voting, and this would in turn give Democratic voters more accessibility and likely cause them to be better represented when it comes to voting. The blue-voting states historically have supported mail-in ballots, as they are a way that voters can more easily get their votes in, and they create opportunities for some people to vote who otherwise couldn’t in person. The Democrats aim to use this as an advantage in elections to receive more votes for their candidates, and in swing states that could go either way, this could be the key factor in swaying these states. With this recent change in Republicans’ views on mail in ballots, we could see mail in ballots become accessible nationwide and supported by both parties (6). The piece that is holding some states back from doing this is the so-called “MAGA Republicans,” or those who supported Trump within his campaign, and backed his view on the fraudulence of mail in ballots. The reason that these MAGA Republicans have different views than the rest of the GOP is that they tend to support nearly all of the claims that Donald Trump makes, even though some of them lack factual support. Trump has most recently been convicted of trying to interfere with the outcome of the election – a felony charge. Though many Republicans have moved on from Trump and no longer support him, there are still a large number who support him in his claims of voting and election fraud, and therefore support restriction of mail-in ballots (6). Although not every state is supportive of mail in ballots across the aisle, the recent shift of Republicans’ support of them could cause a major increase in their accessibility throughout the country.

Florida, one of the leading states aiming to enact voter restriction legislation and a state that was won by a Democrat in 2016, then a Republican in 2020, is targeting voter registration groups with the goal of intimidating voting organizations. They recently enacted a law that increased the fine of human error when registering voters to a $50,000 fee (1). These human errors include allowing non-citizens to register to vote, or ineligible voters to register. Though people who are ineligible to vote should not be receiving voter registration paperwork, these fines were made to significantly intimidate organizations whose goal it is to get people to vote. Many organizations aim to register as many people as possible to vote, and according to Pew Research, about ⅔ of the population votes, but these new bills could make it much harder for them to do so with the fines being so great (7). All it takes is one human mistake for them to lose a ton of money, and being that many of these organizations are non-profits, it could greatly harm their operation and possibly get them shut down. Florida seems to be the state that is focusing most on intimidating voters. However, other states seeing this could be enabled to take a similar course of action, and we could see these bills be introduced around the country if they seem to be meeting their goals. This, similar to other restrictive laws in Republican voting states, could decrease the number of outright voters without affecting the distribution of Republican and Democratic votes, keeping Florida close to a battleground state. Given that the number of electoral college votes Florida holds is 30, this will be absolutely vital. If it does affect the distribution of one party’s votes in comparison to the other, those 30 votes will significantly help the candidate who receives them, and could be a deciding factor of the upcoming election.

Georgia, one of the most important swing states, with 15 electoral college votes, has enacted bills that focus on both voter restriction and voter expansion. Georgia’s governor is a Republican named Brian Kemp, and as recently as September, Kemp stated that he will support Trump in the upcoming election (8). The reason that this is compelling is due to the fact that their laws actually heavily support mail-in ballots, something that Trump heavily opposed, and Georgia focuses greatly on voter accessibility. There have been proposals to change the laws regarding absentee ballots there. However, in August, a federal judge ruled in favor of upholding the ruling that voters can change any mistakes on their absentee ballots without losing the ability to use them (8). The Secretary of State in Georgia, Republican Brad Reffensberger, stated, “Georgia continues to have one of the most secure and accessible voting systems in the country for all voters,” and “I am glad that the court upheld Georgia’s common sense rules banning ballot harvesting and securing absentee ballot drop boxes. Georgia’s voting system is accessible to all voters, with multiple options for voters to choose how they want to exercise their right to vote” (9). Georgia has a ban on ballot harvesting, which is third party involvement regarding submitting absentee ballots. Though Georgia is run primarily by Republican lawmakers, these lawmakers aim to make voting as accessible as possible, and support voting in many ways. This could lead to an increase in votes throughout the states, which would likely increase the number of Republican votes, seemingly the goal for the lawmakers. Georgia voted red in the six elections before 2020 (10), so increasing voter accessibility could see a return to this trend.

Nevada is another case where the Governor of the state is a Republican, but the state swung blue in the past election and is aiming to pass voter expansion policies. Democratic Secretary of State in Nevada Cisco Aguilar aided in passing a bill that targets election interference, making it a felony charge to intimidate an election official in any way (11). Aguilar is also aiming to create a database that holds statewide information on voting status, as Nevada is one of few states that lacks this software. Though it will likely not be initiated by the 2024 election, Aguilar is aiming to put it in place as soon as possible, which is looking like it will be close to 2025. Aguilar gave insight on his plan for this program and said that it will allow him to have real time data on election day regarding the number of uncounted ballots remaining which will allow him to give public updates about result times on election day (11). Aguilar has attempted to pass more voter expansion bills, including one that would allow election officials to count mail-in ballots before election day. However, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo, who is closely affiliated with Donald Trump, vetoed the bill (11). Though this bill didn’t pass, Aguilar has been working vigorously to pass voter expansion bills that will make Nevada a home to easy access voting and registration. This could help see Nevada stay a blue state in the coming election, likely one of the goals of Democrat Cisco Aguilar.

Pennsylvania is yet another swing state in the U.S., that voted red in 2016, then blue in 2020. Pennsylvania is one of the most vital swing states, holding 21 electoral college votes, the most out of any of the seven swing states being discussed (12). Republicans in Pennsylvania want all voters to have to present identification at polling places, and want voter I.D. cards to be issued to registered voters in the state. Currently, the Pennsylvania laws state that only first-time voters and those seeking to vote by absentee ballot must present identification (12). Pennsylvania has recently flipped to a Democratic majority in the house, and Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro wants the House Republicans to agree to uplift the legislation that bans processing of absentee ballots before Election Day (5). The inability to process mail-in ballots until Election Day led to unnecessary delays in election results being released, so Shapiro is aiming to reduce these delays by lifting this ban. This is one of many moves he is looking to make with regards to voting expansion, the others focusing on voter registration. Shapiro is in support of same day voter registration every day, including Election Day, instead of the restriction that Pennsylvania currently holds, forcing voters to register weeks before the election (5). This would allow more people to get the opportunity to vote, specifically those who do not have much time to register and cast a vote. With the help of their governor, Pennsylvania is looking to enact multiple new voter expansion laws, and Josh Shapiro is vigorously campaigning for it.

Within most states, it will be clear what side they are on when it comes to voter expansion and voter restriction based on their previous election results. The states that voted red will tend to see more voter restriction laws in place, and the states that voted blue will likely see voter expansion laws (1). The most interesting part of this will be within the swing states, as many of them have seen legislation passed from both sides over the past three years (1). In Pennsylvania, there have been many voter restriction laws introduced, but with the help of their Democratic governor, they have passed mainly voter expansion policies, with the restrictive legislation failing in the House. One of the main focuses of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is passing his proposed Automatic Voter Registration Plan (AVR), which would allow all eligible voters to become automatically registered upon requesting a driver’s license or state ID (5). Pennsylvania was vital for President Biden’s win in 2020, so having these laws could serve the Democratic candidates very well.

There will be a lot of controversy within the swing states, and based on the tight results from the last election, it will be extremely important for both sides to win those states. The majority of the states that have only passed either restrictive or expansive legislation are likely to vote similarly to how they did in the 2020 election. However, many states have introduced and passed legislation from both sides, restriction and expansion, so their influence in the upcoming election will be somewhat difficult to predict (1). It will also make things very difficult in states that have overlapping laws that make the margins very narrow for right vs. wrong when it comes to voting rights and accessibility (1). Overall, the 2024 election will be greatly impacted by the recent legislation that affects voting rights throughout the country, and lawmakers in swing states are fighting to have their side be heard in this key debate.

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References

1. “Voting Laws Roundup: June 2023 | Brennan Center for Justice.” n.d. Www.brennancenter.org. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-june-2023. 
2. ‌Vigdor, Neil. 2023. “States Push for New Voting Laws with an Eye toward 2024.” The New York Times, January 20, 2023, sec. U.S. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/20/us/politics/voting-rights-laws-states.html. 
3. Fernandez, Mariel. 2023. “How Shelby County v. Holder Broke Democracy.” Legal Defense Fund. Legal Defense Fund. May 30, 2023. https://www.naacpldf.org/shelby-v-holder-impact/. 
4. ‌“What Are the Current Swing States, and How Have They Changed over Time?” 2022. USAFacts. November 1, 2022. https://usafacts.org/articles/what-are-the-current-swing-states-and-how-have-they-changed-over-time/. 
5. ‌“Josh’s Plan to Defend Democracy, Ensure Access to the Ballot Box, & Improve Elections.” n.d. Shapiro for Governor. Accessed October 15, 2023. https://joshshapiro.org/votingrights/. 
6. “Republicans Set to Push Mail Ballots, Voting Methods They Previously Blasted as Recipes for Fraud.” 2023. AP NEWS. June 8, 2023. https://apnews.com/article/ballot-harvesting-early-voting-election-2024-republicans-a844f375bb86b012cfba0e67b3f77fb7. 
7. Nadeem, Reem. 2023. “1. Voter Turnout, 2018-2022.” Pew Research Center – U.S. Politics & Policy. July 12, 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/. 
8. “Kemp Says He Would Back Trump in 2024 Election: ‘Better than Biden.’” 2023. FOX 5 Atlanta. September 25, 2023. https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/kemp-back-trump-presidential-election-better-biden#:~:text=ATLANTA%20%2D%20Despite%20clashing%20in%20the. 
9. “Court Continues to Uphold Core of Georgia’s Election Integrity Act | Georgia Secretary of State.” n.d. Sos.ga.gov. Accessed October 15, 2023. https://sos.ga.gov/news/court-continues-uphold-core-georgias-election-integrity-act. 
10. “Presidential Voting Trends in Georgia.” n.d. Ballotpedia. https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_voting_trends_in_Georgia. 
11. Girnus, April Corbin, Nevada Current July 11, and 2023. 2023. “Top Election Official Says New Legislation Will Improve System, Expand Access to NV Voters.” Nevada Current. July 11, 2023. https://www.nevadacurrent.com/2023/07/11/top-election-official-says-new-legislation-will-improve-system-expand-access-to-nv-voters/. 
12. “Pennsylvania Considers New Voter ID Expansion.” 2023. Votebeat Pennsylvania. October 3, 2023. https://pennsylvania.votebeat.org/2023/10/3/23902273/voter-id-bill-2024-presidential-primary-move. 
13. ‌“ELECTORAL COUNT REFORM ACT of 2022.” n.d. https://www.collins.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/one_pager_on_electoral_count_reform_act_of_2022.pdf.