Gabe Lopata

29 October 2024

The upcoming election undoubtedly has many policy issues on the ballot that will either be upheld or altered depending on who is elected this coming November. One of the most controversial issues in this election will be how the Israeli occupation in Gaza is handled and the United States relation to this conflict. Though President Biden and Vice President Harris have made their stance clear, Donald Trump has yet to describe a plan of action, stating only that he will end the conflict. The part of this that will be interesting, however, is that neither presidential candidate has expressed support of Palestine or of an end of the alliance with and funding towards Israeli genocide. This issue, one that will continue to be discussed until the election, is not one that will necessarily decide who voters will support, but rather whether or not they will vote as a whole. Many voters will not exercise their right to vote due to the lack of support for Palestinian citizens who are dying daily, and this will most certainly have an impact on the election. The big question is which candidate will see the effect of this. 

In late May, President Biden announced that Israel had proposed a framework for a ceasefire deal that would end its occupation of the Gaza strip, conditional on Hamas releasing the hostages it took last October. Biden then called on Hamas to accept the deal to end the conflict [1]. At the NATO conference in July, weeks after the proposed deal, Biden explained that the United Nations security council had endorsed the plan, and that he believed that both sides were trending in the right direction. He also mentioned that he sent members of his team to both Israel and Gaza to discuss the details of the agreement [1]. 

In August, President Biden sounded off again, stating, “We’re closer than we’ve ever been [1]. I don’t want to jinx anything.” By August, it seemed like a ceasefire was likely to happen very soon, a relief to many, as tens of thousands of Palestinian people have been brutally murdered over the past 11 months. U.S. officials claimed that the deal was nearly done, stating that it was “90% complete” [1]. The following morning, Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu went on Fox News and stated that it is not 90% complete. He said that Hamas hasn’t been cooperating with a deal, and doesn’t have interest in making a deal. 

One of the main reasons that this deal couldn’t be completed is because of the difficulty figuring out the logistics of a hostage exchange. In early September, Hamas killed six hostages who were supposed to be included in the deal, halting the progress it seemed they had made. Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, seem to be showing no urgency when it comes to this, and one Middle East expert, Aaron David Miller, said that Biden seemed to be coming off as desperate [1]. 

AP News stated in late August that any deal that will end this war will need the signatures of two men — Netanyahu and Sinwar [2]. These two enemies both have demands that they feel they need to be met in order to make a deal; however, both sides’ demands seem to be unreachable. On one side, Netanyahu is demanding that all the hostages in Gaza be returned to Israel, and the Israeli public supports this demand. This is also a demand that the U.S. seemed to support, given its support of Israel throughout this conflict. On the other hand, Sinwar is bargaining using the 100+ hostages that Hamas has captured, though many of them are presumed to be dead. Sinwar wants assurance that if there is to be a hostage exchange, Israel does not reoccupy the land afterwards, and that Palestinian prisoners, like Sinwar was previously, are returned to Gaza [2]. These are both very big asks that neither side seems to have any urgency to complete, and that seems to be unrealistic asking prices from both sides due to their lack of a deal. Although from the outside this seems like a deal that would be somewhat reasonable – Israeli hostages are returned, and Israel ends their occupation of the land – the lack of urgency and the fact there is not yet a deal tells us that neither side is satisfied with making a deal to end this conflict, they seemingly would both rather win through means of war.

The upcoming general election will play a large role in this, assuming the attacks are still going on come November. The Biden administration has been aiding Israel over the past year with weaponry and military aid, and although Biden called for the ceasefire plan this past summer, it appears from the outside that he has placed little to no pressure on Netanyahu to get this done. Within the past year, 12 U.S. Officials have publicly resigned, and in July, released a joint statement in which they said that “America’s diplomatic cover for, and continuous flow of arms to, Israel has ensured our undeniable complicity in the killings and forced starvation of a besieged Palestinian population in Gaza.” [3]. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has also supported the ceasefire deal, however she has not put any pressure on Netanyahu either, showing a lack of urgency. Former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump has stated that he believes Israel needs to conclude its attacks, though he as well has put no pressure on them to do so, and will likely continue to aid the state should he be elected in November [2]. 

When President Biden withdrew from the election in the middle of the summer, Israel’s left-wing newspaper, Haaretz, claimed that this would be monumental for the state of Israeli politics [4]. They explained that Kamala Harris had been much more demeaning of Israel and its invasions, and expressed alarm at the rising death toll of Palestinian civilians [3]. Harris told protesters at her Arizona rally that, “I have been clear: now is the time to get a ceasefire deal and get the hostage deal done” [5]. Vice President Harris is attempting to show urgency in getting a deal done, something that will likely increase her popularity within her own voters, but her lack of action may not have a drastic effect on swaying undecided voters. Harris, as the Vice President, may engage in activities of negotiations worldwide [6], however she will not go above Biden’s head in an attempt to seek a ceasefire, and based on her current presidential campaign, it seems that she may not even do this as President, should she be elected in November. On her website where she states her campaign issues, there is no place where she addressed the conflict in Palestine, which comes off as a lack of urgency to get this done, and a lack of care overall. Harris, while reiterating the idea that a ceasefire must come, stated that she will always give Israel the opportunity to defend itself, which did not sit well with her pro-Palestinian supporters [7]. Given all of this, it seems that much of her talk about a ceasefire may be performative in an attempt to satisfy both sides of voters, those for Palestine and those for Israel, however she is losing out on the votes from those who are adamant about a ceasefire in Gaza.

As of September 19, 2024, the Uncommitted Movement, a Democratic organization that called on President Biden to secure a ceasefire and who are now calling on Harris to do the same, have tallied hundreds of thousands of voters, specifically in Michigan, who will refrain from voting due to Harris’ unwillingness to cooperate with their asks [8]. They first asked that a Palestinian-American speaker have a segment at the DNC in August, which didn’t happen, then asked that Harris speak to Palestinian-American families, which also didn’t happen. With both of these requests failing to occur, the Uncommitted Movement stated that they are unable to support Kamala Harris in the upcoming election and will urge their supporters to not vote for Trump either [8]. This was a decision that the Uncommitted Movement didn’t want to do, but they believed they were left with no choice. In the Democratic primaries, 700,000 people and 37 delegates had voted uncommitted [9], declining to support Biden in the primary. With the news about Kamala Harris, and the movement rejecting endorsing her, we can expect to see this number rise significantly, which will cause Harris to miss out on hundreds of thousands, if not millions of votes that she may need to win this election. 

Trump has not stated any plan for how he plans to address the situation if he is elected in November and retakes the oval office. He has addressed the conflict very passively and critically, stating that “You had a horrible invasion that took place that would have never happened if I was president,” [10], and that Harris and Biden have been mishandling it due to their hatred for Israel, whereas he is the self-proclaimed “protector” of Israel [11]; however, he has yet to explain how he plans to deal with this issue [6]. In late July, Trump stated that he met with Netanyahu, an ally of his during his presidency, and told the media that Netanyahu “knows what he’s doing, I did encourage him to get this over with.” [12]. Trump has shown that he will support Israel throughout its military operations and even stated, “I will give Israel the support that it needs to win, but I do want them to win fast.” This quote seems to oversimplify the weight of this entire situation. The term “win” in this conflict is one that does not seem very clear, as we are unaware of Trump’s implications when using this word. Winning, to Israel, could mean taking out and destroying all of Hamas, which would be extremely difficult given the number of soldiers that Hamas has, not to mention the number of civilians that would be killed should this take place. Trump may be referring to winning as Israel benefiting more from a ceasefire deal, however Trump has made no implication that he will pursue a deal, showing criticism to Biden and Harris’ call for a ceasefire, claiming that an Israeli ceasefire would allow Hamas to build up for another attack similar to the one that “started this conflict.” [12]. This is a very open statement that doesn’t make a lot of sense given the situation, and is his attempt to show attention to the situation without giving any detail as to what his plan actually is. Clearly, Trump has no plan to deal with this conflict at all, and based on all of his statements over the past year, he will likely allow Israel to continue to do whatever they feel necessary, which will undoubtedly result in the death toll of Palestinian citizens rising.

The effect that this will have on democracy as a whole is up in the air, and the outcome of the coming election will play a major role in this. Many of the members of the Uncommitted Movement are Democrats and are very unsupportive of Trump, as stated previously with the movement’s order to not vote for Trump. But how will these people not voting affect democracy as a whole? If Vice President Harris doesn’t get elected, this will likely play a major role in that outcome. This outcome would mean that Donald Trump would take office; however, he has no plans to protect Palestinian civilians either, leaving the uncommitted voters in a difficult spot. We will then see another four years of Trump presidency, which, if the things that he is being accused of in relation to Project 2025 are true, becomes a large threat to democracy. On the other hand, if Vice President Harris is able to win despite the uncommitted voters who refuse to support her, the backlash will certainly be seen and heard, and the protests and calling for a ceasefire will likely only grow stronger. Though Harris hasn’t detailed a plan as to what she will do, the urgency of a ceasefire may rise if citizens continue to feel that their voices aren’t being heard. This is an issue that will be evident regardless of who is elected, and if the American people don’t feel that their voice is heard, then democracy as a whole is under pressure.

There is no debate that Trump will not be swaying any of the pro-Palestine Democratic voters who are refusing to vote for Harris to vote for him instead. However, Trump not being overly involved in this conflict could help him. With Harris losing her own voters over this conflict, Trump doesn’t need to be overly involved. His supporters are already established, and this is not an issue that he will gain or lose supporters over. The pressure is on Vice President Harris to get a ceasefire done, and she has claimed that she will be the one to do this, however has not shown any evidence as to how. Losing tens of thousands of voters in Michigan through the statements of the Uncommitted Movement will undoubtedly take a toll on her chances to win, and Michigan is not the only state that will be affected by this. The pressure of this issue is on Kamala Harris, and getting a deal done will unquestionably help her campaign.

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Works Cited

[1] Khalid, Asma. “The Biden Administration Is under Pressure to Reach a Ceasefire Deal.” NPR, NPR, 8 Sept. 2024, www.npr.org/2024/09/08/nx-s1-5099226/the-biden-administration-is-under-pressure-to-reach-a-ceasefire-deal. 

[2] Krauss, Joseph. “Two Sworn Enemies Hold the Key to Ending the War in Gaza. Does Either Man Want a Deal?” AP News, AP News, 28 Aug. 2024, apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-netanyahu-sinwar-ceasefire-talks-c00b30d31ac8d25592ce63c2398097a5. 

[3] Iclac Turan, Rabia. “Fact Box – 12 US Officials Have Publicly Resigned in Protest over Biden’s Gaza Policy since Oct. 7.” Anadolu Ajansı, 7 Mar. 2024, www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/fact-box-12-us-officials-have-publicly-resigned-in-protest-over-bidens-gaza-policy-since-oct-7/3264478#. 

[4] DeBre, Isabel. “How Biden’s Withdrawal Affects Foreign Policy Challenges as the World Watches the U.S. Election.” PBS, Public Broadcasting Service, 22 July 2024, www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-bidens-withdrawal-affects-foreign-policy-challenges-as-the-world-watches-the-u-s-election. 

[5] “Harris Tells Pro-Palestine Protesters ‘now Is Time for Ceasefire’ in Gaza.” Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 10 Aug. 2024, www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/10/harris-tells-pro-palestine-protesters-now-is-time-for-ceasefire-in-gaza. 

[6] Participation of the Vice President in the Affairs of the Executive Branch, Department of Justice, www.justice.gov/file/147656/dl?inline=.  Accessed 17 Oct. 2024.

[7] Siddiqui, Sabrina. “Harris Calls for Ceasefire in Gaza, While Trump Claims …” The Wall Street Journal, The Wall Street Journal, 11 September 2024 www.wsj.com/livecoverage/harris-trump-presidential-debate-election-2024/card/harris-calls-for-ceasefire-in-gaza-while-trump-claims-she-hates-israel–isokhfqmy6EgRGrUOSuK. Accessed 19 Sept. 2024. 

[8] Cappelletti, Joey. “Watch: Leaders of Democratic Protest of Israel-Hamas War Won’t Endorse Harris but Warn against Trump.” PBS, Public Broadcasting Service, 19 Sept. 2024, www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-leaders-of-democratic-protest-of-israel-hamas-war-wont-endorse-harris-but-warn-against-trump. 

[9] Moore, Elena. “‘uncommitted’ Movement Spreads to Super Tuesday States.” NPR, NPR, 6 Mar. 2024, www.npr.org/2024/03/06/1236295096/super-tuesday-results-uncommitted-biden-gaza-israel. 

[10] Hillyard, Vaughn, and Allan Smith. “Trump Breaks Silence on Israel’s Military Campaign in Gaza: ‘Finish the Problem.’” NBCNews.Com, NBCUniversal News Group, 5 Mar. 2024, www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-israel-gaza-finish-problem-rcna141905. 

[11] McCammon, Sarah. “Trump Tells Jewish Voters They Have ‘no Excuse’ for Supporting Harris.” NPR, NPR, 20 Sept. 2024, www.npr.org/2024/09/20/g-s1-23859/trump-jewish-voters-israel-election-2024. 

[12] Singh, Kanishka, and Nathan Layne. “Trump Says He Told Netanyahu to End Gaza War but Criticizes Ceasefire Call | Reuters.” Reuters, www.reuters.com/world/netanyahu-denies-report-he-spoke-trump-about-gaza-talks-2024-08-15/. Accessed 19 Sept. 2024.